While the Conference Board of Canada is projecting economic growth in the territory of 2.7 per cent, that figure may drop if the Minto Mine does indeed move into shutdown mode as planned later this year.

The conference board released its 68-page territorial outlook for 2016 on Wednesday with the projection.

Elise Martin, an economist with the conference board, said in an interview this morning that figure was reached prior to officials at the territory’s only operating mine outlining plans to shut down later this year as a result of low mineral prices.

While the figures were reached prior to the mine owner’s announcement, the board acknowledged the impact of the closure in a statement on the report’s highlights.

“If this (closure) occurs, there would be no producing mines in the territory, and it would significantly hamper economic growth,” the statement reads.

“Also, no new mines are expected to move into the development phase over the near term. This will weigh on the territory’s construction industry, which is expected to see little growth over the next two years.”

The report also projected a 1.2 per cent growth rate for Nunavut.

The Northwest Territories economy, meanwhile, is expected to remain almost flat, at 0.7 per cent.

“All three territories faced difficult economic conditions in 2015 and the hard times are not over yet,” said Marie-Christine Bernard, the conference board’s associate director on the provincial and territorial forecasts.

“On a more positive note, public investment in much-needed infrastructure will help the economies of Nunavut and Yukon return to growth this year.”

As it was noted in the report, while mining has slowed down, planned government spending on infrastructure will help offset that.

“Yukon’s 2015-16 capital budget is the largest in the territory’s history and many investments in health facilities, schools and other infrastructure are expected in 2016,” notes the summary.

“Moreover, Yukon is becoming a tourist destination, with overnight visits projected to increase by 2.5 per cent in 2016.

“The weaker Canadian dollar, lower gasoline prices and an increased awareness of Yukon as a tourist destination are all factors benefiting the territory’s tourism industry.”

Long-term estimates predict that tourism expenditures will rise at a pace of 5.3 per cent each year until 2019.

Overnight stays in the territory are also expected to rise by 2.5 per cent this year.

“The Yukon tourism industry, including its aboriginal tourism sector, seems to be benefitting from the ‘Yukon Now’ marketing campaign,” it was noted in the full report.

Looking at the job market, the report forecasts just a modest increase of about 100 jobs in 2016, mainly in the public sector.

It will likely be 2018 before there’s a significant increase in employment in the territory.

“Employment growth is expected to average 2.3 per cent a year between 2018 and 2023, boosted by strong growth in the construction sector,” the report states.

“In addition to mining and construction, job gains will come in services such as wholesale and retail trade; transportation, storage and warehousing; and finance, insurance and real estate.

“The unemployment rate is expected to fall from 6.5 per cent in 2016 to five per cent in 2022.

“It will then climb slightly once the construction of the Selwyn mine is completed and edge down until the end of the forecast period.”

The report also explored demographics, showing an estimated population of 42,300 in the territory by 2030.

Though the population is expected to grow, it is also an aging population.

While 10.9 per cent of the territory’s population is currently over the age of 65, that’s expected to nearly double to 20.7 per cent over the next 15 years.

“Unlike the N.W.T. and Nunavut, Yukon has a relatively low fertility rate – just 1.6 births per woman, which is similar to the rest of Canada,” the report notes.

“This low fertility rate will have an impact on the territory’s overall natural population growth (births minus deaths), which is expected to slow over the forecast period.

“However, Yukon will benefit from both net international and net interprovincial migrants each year.”

Between 2015 and 2019, it’s anticipated only 247 people will move to the Yukon from other Canadian jurisdictions.

That’s anticipated to be followed by some leaving the territory for other parts of the country until about 2023, when people will begin moving to the Yukon again.

“All in all, over the next decade and a half, Yukon can expect to see a gain of 1,700 residents from other parts of Canada, as well as 1,487 international migrants,” it’s noted.

“This will help to alleviate some of the labour pressures caused by the aging of the population.”

While changes to the formula for federal transfers to the territory will see the Yukon receive $6.5 million less than it did last year from Ottawa, it’s not anticipated to have a major impact on the economic outlook.