New data estimate that the plummet in tourism caused by COVID-19 will contribute to thousands of job losses and a minimum six-per-cent drop in the business sector GDP in the Yukon.

“It is quite unprecedented,” Bishnu Saha, the director of the Yukon Bureau of Statistics, told the Star this morning.

“Tourism is one of the sectors which is the hardest-hit of the sectors in the Yukon economy … (and) the contribution of tourism to GDP in Yukon is quite high.”

The six-page research report is titled “Yukon in COVID-19 Pandemic: Decline in Tourism Activities and the Impact on the Economy”. It was published to the Yukon government’s website on June 8.

It was prepared by Statistics Canada in collaboration with the Yukon statistics bureau.

The report found that international tourist arrivals had already dropped 25 per cent in the first three months of 2020.

It’s estimated that at the end of 2020, tourism activities will drop between 67.4 and 96 per cent, depending on when the border opens.

The report outlines three scenarios that will affect the Yukon’s economy.

Scenario one assumes that travel restrictions will start to be lifted and national borders will be opened in early July.

The annual drop in tourism activities would be 67.4 per cent in this scenario. This would likely result in 1,995 job losses and a 6.3-per-cent drop in the business sector GDP.

Scenario two assumes that borders will be opened in early September, with an 86.9 per cent drop in tourism activities. In this case, there would be 2,572 lost jobs, and an 8.1-per-cent drop in business sector GDP.

Scenario three assumes that borders will be opened in early December and there would be a 96-per-cent drop in tourism activities.

Scenario three estimates 2,841 lost jobs and an 8.9-per-cent drop in the business sector GDP.

According to Saha, the ratio of employed to the number of jobs is 80 per cent. This means that in the best-case scenario, 1,995 job losses would translate to 1,600 unemployed Yukoners.

The business sector GDP accounts for approximately half of the Yukon’s total GDP. This means that the drop in tourism is likely to cause a minimum 3.4 per cent drop in the territory’s total GDP.

The statistics bureau will publish a business survey report next week that estimates an overall GDP drop of five per cent, Saha said.

Even when borders do open, the impact on the tourism industry will be substantial.

“Tourism patterns are likely to be substantially different from what they have been in previous years,” Saha said.

He noted that it’s “out of the scope of this paper” to estimate whether tourism will be buoyed by open borders this summer. The industry may be further impacted by other factors, he said.

The statistics also don’t consider government business support, meaning some jobs may be saved by federal and territorial funds, Saha explained.

Tourism activities account for 18.4 per cent of the Yukon’s business sector jobs, which is three times more than in the rest of Canada. More than half of these jobs are in the accommodation and restaurant industries. 

These data were commissioned by the statistics bureau in May. They were prepared by Weimin Wang, principal researcher in the Economic Analysis Division of Statistics Canada.

The Yukon government announced its plan to open the Yukon border to B.C. on May 29. That is planned for July 1.

Yukon Party MLA, Scott Kent said today he is concerned that the government didn’t share the report more openly with the public.

“I’m surprised the government wasn’t very forthright in bringing this forward; it’s important modelling,” Kent told the Star.

“I think that businesses need to see (this) but the document was buried on Yukon.ca.”

Kent said the numbers are concerning for the tourism industry, as they more clearly show what many Yukoners have heard anecdotally since the beginning of the pandemic.

“We’ve seen many businesses struggling; they’ve had to either lay off staff or close their doors, some of them permanently,” Kent said.

“This study certainly shows that.”

The Yukon Party has publicly pressed the government to reconvene the legislative assembly so elected officials can debate the COVID-19 restrictions.

“I think it goes back again to that all-party committee we suggested earlier on in the spring sitting that would have looked at all the economic impacts and come up with some recommendations of programming to support businesses,” Kent said.

“This government is quickly becoming one of the most secretive and undemocratic in the history of the territory.”