The Yukon government has offered some detail into what led it to award a contract for construction on the French-language high school for a price that brings it above the overarching project’s budget estimated five months ago.

As of July 2018, the entire overall budget for the project sat at an estimated $27.5 million, Doris Wurfbaum, a Department of Highways and Public Works (HPW) spokesperson, confirmed in an interview last Thursday. (The department is in charge of procurement in the territory.)

As per a YG release from Dec. 11, it has now agreed to fork over $29.3 million to Whitehorse-based Ketza Construction – for just construction work, she added.

That number was expected to be lower at $22.5 million also as of July, according to figures provided earlier this month by another HPW spokesperson, Cat Campbell.

That amounts to a $6.8 million difference than the awarded $29.3 million for the design-build construction work.

With the $27.5 million figure being a total cost estimate, Wurfbaum agreed that the price for the school could balloon higher than the already-awarded $29.3 million (for construction work only) when all is said and done and the school becomes a reality.

In other words: the construction part of the project alone is already costing YG more than it anticipated the entire project to be, as of estimates from earlier this year.

It brings the overall project to $1.8 million above budget thus far (the difference between $29.3 million actually spent so far and the $27.5 million total estimated cost).

Pointing out that it is difficult to forecast cost estimates, Campbell said that is especially true when projects are in their early developments.

In a statement to the Star Dec. 14, the communications analyst wrote that there are a number of unknowns that may make it difficult to predict costs with complete accuracy.

Some of those unknowns include:

• the unemployment rate in the future, which can contribute to labour shortages across certain industries;

• the strength and activity around the construction market; and

• commodity prices that may fluctuate because of factors like imposed tariffs.

It’s these tariffs that “are creating uncertainty among contractors, who are bidding on years-long projects depending on commodity prices that can be volatile,” she said.

The statement continued that the factors were “fluid” and ever-changing, so “it’s normal for bids to come in at a cost that considers future unpredictability.”

She also added that once the design work on the site is complete, there will be a better idea of how the cost would break down.

According to the release, construction is to begin during the spring of next year and be completed by the winter of 2020-2021.

That’s after the bid closed in October and the announcement that Ketza Construction had won it came down earlier last week.

Meanwhile, particularly when it comes to tariffs, U.S. President Donald Trump imposed steel and aluminum levies on Canadian imports which officially took effect in June of this year.

That was after his 2016 election promise to open up negotiations around NAFTA (for clarity, Canada and Mexico have since renewed a trade deal).

Canada fired back with retaliatory tariffs of its own shortly after, on imported American goods like boats, jam and ketchup.

And on a somewhat related note: the Star detailed the impact one local company said the tariffs could have on its business back in late June.

A representative from Klondike Welding, for example, said it saw the price for a contract rise within half a year by about 30 to 35 per cent after the ink had dried on work signed onto during August 2017.

By way of comparison with this French-language school contract: with the difference being $6.8 million, the increase in awarded cost for the Ketza contract ($29.3 million) from the projected $22.5 million works out to about 30 per cent over five months. That’s not a far cry from the figure the representative from Klondike gave earlier this year.

(Klondike Welding is not involved in the awarding of the French high school contract.)

The department was unable to speak to a dollar figure that could be attributed to tariffs. Wurfbaum explained there was not enough information to determine that, as the work was not complete.

A spokesperson for Ketza, meanwhile, redirected questions to the department.

The Whitehorse-based company was one of three that submitted bids for consideration.

Only two are listed on the government’s tender management system, with Ketza’s bid clocking in at $29.3 million and Yellowknife’s Clark Builders for $33.9 million.

B.C.-based Yellowridge’s price is not listed. Campbell explained that was because the firm did not make it past the first round of evaluation.

“The unsuccessful proponent ... did not meet the minimum technical evaluation scoring threshold,” she wrote, explaining that the process includes scoring technical proposals first.

The envelope with prices is only looked at once the technical proposals are scored “to ensure fairness so that evaluators are not influenced by prices,” she said.

Yellowridge therefore did not meet the minimum threshold so the price envelope was returned to them unopened, she added – explaining why there was no price listed for it on the tender site.

Meanwhile, earlier estimates had also projected the school would host 200 students – a figure that has since been downgraded to 150 students and 25 staff.

That was a number referenced in a 2016 functional plan for the school.

Education Minister Tracy-Anne McPhee explained earlier this year that such plans are drafted during the very early planning stages of a project.

As detailed in the Star on Dec. 13, the Yukon Francophone School Board (CSFY) expects the site to meet demand for the first cohort (estimating it at 110 students).

The board acknowledged that if growth is severe over the coming years, there may be a growing need for space.

Jean-Sebastian Blais, president of the CSFY, guessed that “for now, I think at 150, we can meet the demand,” but “shortly” there could be a need to address there.

For its part, YG said the new school is expected to “result in students continuing with French First Language secondary school programming,” Campbell wrote.

That means enrolment in Grades 7 to 12 at the school may continue to rise, but the school is expected to “meet the needs of students for many years.”

The release notes that there is space for 150 students from Grades 7 to 12.

Students from École Émilie-Tremblay currently enrolled at these grade levels set to call the new site home during the 2020-2021 school year (complementing the Sept. 15, 2020 substantial performance date).

According to figures provided by the government, on Dec. 14, there were 292 students enrolled at École Émilie-Tremblay, 58 of whom are in Grades 7 to 12 and the remaining 234 in kindergarten to Grade 6.

As reported last March, the 2016 plan projected the French school board to have 149 secondary school students in Grades 7 to 12 for the 2021-2022 school year – a year after the French-language school is to open in 2020.

Some years down the road, that figure is forecast to jump to 172 come the 2024-2025 school year.

Blais provided a bit of an update last week, saying he expects the first cohort of students heading into the new school to be closer to the 110 mark when it opens.

The construction project also received a $7.5-million nod from the feds through its Minority Language Education program for the school’s francophone community spaces.