Revised - Meteorologists are known to be a fickle bunch at times, but this month, both Environment Canada and Yukon’s weather specialist are pretty much in agreement.

This winter is weird.

Michael Smith, the meteorologist for the territory, was having a bit of a laugh Thursday discussing the weather and his tentative seasonal forecast.

In short: expect more of the same.

Last week, an Environment Canada meteorologist pronounced much the same thing Smith is saying. There’s no strong likelihood this season is likely to turn into a more typical Yukon winter.

Smith went further, saying he expects this winter to be in the “top five” of warmest winters on record.

It’s rare, but definitely not unprecedented, he said.

The experts do disagree somewhat on the reasons for the aberrant weather, but their conclusions coincide.

Smith is pointing the finger – weather prediction-wise – squarely at a strong El Nino phenomenon in the Pacific Ocean.

El Nino, as most people are likely aware, is a pool of warmer-than-normal water that forms in the Pacific Ocean and creates havoc with worldwide weather.

It’s usually not much of a force in the Yukon, Smith said, but this year is apparently the exception to the rule.

He’s blaming the El Nino for disrupting the flow of the jet stream, sending it far to the north, and letting warmer southern air flood in.

That’s similar to what Lisa Ervin of Environment Canada told the Star last week. However, Ervin said she doesn’t believe this was attributable to El Nino.

Contrary to prevailing belief, she said what we’re seeing so far is not due to the El Nino that has tongues wagging.

Ervin told the Star Dec. 19 we haven’t even begun to feel the effects of that ocean warming yet.

The El Nino phenomenon typically impacts the Yukon and western Canada more in the latter half of the winter when it appears, she explained.

Smith said, tongue planted firmly in his cheek, this winter is the reward for the past three winters. Those have been excessively snowy for the Yukon, particularly 2020-2021, which saw near-record levels of snowfall being recorded in some sections of the territory.

The winter of 2021-2022 wasn’t really much of an improvement, he added.

Last winter gave us a bit of a reprieve, he said, but was still slightly off-kilter.

“There’s a lot of variables in the mix,” Smith said. “No one has it quite figured out.”

He also pointed to the diminishing polar sea ice as another suspect in explaining the strange weather.

Smith suggested what we’re seeing is a mix of El Nino and climate change acting in concert.

There’s no real doubt that winters, at least for extreme cold temperatures, have been moderating for many years.

“It’s certainly seems noticeably warmer,” Smith said.

The precipitation, at least in the form of snow, is less predictable.

Ervin said, “What we’re seeing so far is the result of a stubborn weather front pattern blowing in from the southwest, bringing warmer, and sometimes tropical air, to the North.

It’s not just the Yukon experiencing a surprisingly mild winter so far, Ervin said.

The same thing is being seen basically everywhere in Canada, and consequently, many areas of the country had a green Christmas.

Here at home, Old Crow set a record for the warmest November on record with temperatures averaging 9.1 C milder than normal.

Further south, in the Burwash Landing area, it was the third-warmest November on record.

For most longtime residents in the Yukon, this is something rarely seen before, she said.